Report on Future Perspectives and on Opportunities and Risks

Future Perspectives

Economic Outlook

Economic Outlook1

 

 

Growth 2017

 

Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated

1

Real growth of gross domestic product, source: IHS Markit

2

Including about 50 countries defined by IHS Markit as Emerging Markets in line with the World Bank.

As of October 2018

World

 

+3.3%

 

+3.2%

European Union

 

+2.5%

 

+2.0%

of which Germany

 

+2.5%

 

+1.9%

United States

 

+2.2%

 

+2.9%

Emerging Markets2

 

+4.8%

 

+4.7%

We continue to expect that the global economy in 2018 will grow at a similar pace as in the previous year. However, the risks for the world economy have increased compared with the previous year, especially due to the continuing conflicts over trade policy and the currency risks in a number of emerging countries. We continue to expect stronger growth in the United States than in the prior year, while growth in Europe will likely be slower. The increase in economic output in the Emerging Markets will likely match the pace of the prior year overall, while for China we continue to anticipate strong growth at a slightly slower rate than in the prior year.

Economic Outlook for the Segments1

 

 

Growth 2017

 

Growth forecast 2018

2017 figures restated

1

Bayer’s estimate, except pharmaceuticals; source for pharmaceuticals market: IQVIA MIDAS; IQVIA Market Prognosis (September 2018); all rights reserved; currency-adjusted.

As of October 2018

Pharmaceuticals market

 

+3%

 

+5%

Consumer health market

 

+4%

 

+3−4%

Seed and crop protection market

 

+2%

 

+2−3%

Animal health market

 

+2%

 

+4%

Corporate Outlook

We confirm the outlook for the Bayer Group that was updated in the second quarter of 2018 to reflect the acquisition, although the forecasts for Consumer Health and Animal Health are now becoming increasingly ambitious.

Forecast for Key Financial Data of the Group for 2018

 

 

Closing rates on September 30, 2018

 

Currency-adjusted

1

Adjusted for currency and portfolio effects

Sales

 

More than €39 billion

 

Increase by a mid-single-digit percentage1

Development of EBITDA before special items

 

Increase by a low- to mid-single-digit percentage

 

Increase by a high-single-digit percentage

Development of core earnings per share

 

€5.70 – €5.90

 

Decrease by a high-single-digit percentage

Compare to Last Year